Remittance money sent to Mexicans by family members living abroad fell 12 percent in August according to the Bank of Mexico, the largest dip on record.

Mexicans have received 15.5 billion U.S. dollars in money orders, personal checks and bank deposits from abroad this year, a four-percent drop from last year.

Treasury Secretary Agustin Carstens said this week that remittances are likely to fall further because of the “difficult problems that the U.S. economy faces.”  

Carstens also lowered the nation’s annual growth forecast to 2.5 percent on fears that the U.S. financial crisis would slow down Mexico’s export and tourism industries, as well as lower oil and other commodity prices. Next to oil, remittances represent the largest source of foreign income to Mexico; they sustain families and whole rural communities where agricultural jobs have dried up.

Nevertheless, some local economists say a temporary downturn in remittances from the United States isn’t a meaningful indicator for the health of Mexico’s economy.

“Remittances have indeed fallen, but within a normal range. They maintain an upward trend overall through the years,” says Alejandro Canales, a regional economist at the University of Guadalajara.

Canales explains that because government techniques for measuring remittances have steadily changed and improved over the last decade, the tabulated figures reflect dramatic but deceptive increases and annual fluctuations haven’t been properly recorded.

“There are alarmist reports,” he says, “that come from our government that has erroneously seen past increases as a solution to Mexico’s economic problems.”